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NL West: Fortunate Giants search for life at homeBaseball Betting Lines05/24/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's still early in the season and division titles aren't won in May, so luckily the San Francisco Giants still have a pulse for National League West supremacy. It's hard to believe the Giants are 3 1/2 games behind San Diego for the division lead despite playing darker than a Stephen King novel as of late. They lost the last five tests of a seven-game road swing through San Diego, Arizona and Oakland, finishing 1-6 on the trek. San Francisco (22-21) was outscored 10-1 in the three-game series against the Athletics and was shut out in each of the last two meetings. The five consecutive losses are a season high for the Giants, who haven't scored in 20 straight innings. "It's going to come down to two or three guys putting some hits together, and I think as a group they'll relax," Giants manager Bruce Bochy told the team's website. "We have to have something fall, too. In this game you do take a little luck, and today we didn't have any." Bad luck has plagued starter Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez has lost on three separate occasions this season when holding the opposition to two runs or less through seven innings or more. His most memorable moment was losing a 1-0 decision versus the Padres on May 18 despite lasting eight innings and giving up the only run of the game. Sanchez said to 'leave it in the past' in reference to tough-luck setbacks after losing again on Sunday to the A's. The lefty hurled seven innings and was reached for two runs on three hits. A little run support wouldn't hurt either. Entering Sunday's contest, San Francisco was batting .161 with runners in scoring position over the past seven games. It was batting an NL-worst .234 with RISP for the season. Speaking of hurt, the Giants, who have lost 11 of 16 games and will open a nine-game homestand Tuesday versus Washington, Arizona and Colorado, may be without left-hander Jeremy Affeldt after he pulled his left hamstring in Sunday's loss. Affeldt wasn't sure on the severity of the problem and is expected to be evaluated on Monday. He is 2-3 with two saves and a 3.12 earned run average in 2010. Giants outfielder Nate Schierholtz missed his third consecutive start with a bruised right shoulder on Sunday. He's not at 100 percent, according to Bochy. D'BACKS CAN GAIN GROUND IN UPCOMING WEEKS The Arizona Diamondbacks appear to have turned the corner since a seven-game losing streak, but are still stuck in the cellar of the National League West. Arizona is 6 1/2 games off the lead and three games out of third place in the standings, and is hoping an upcoming stretch of division games will shave some of the deficit down. The Diamondbacks will visit Colorado, San Francisco and Los Angeles before hosting the Rockies for three games in the desert. While Colorado is four games off the NL West lead, either the Rockies or Diamondbacks will be in the basement barring inclement weather after their three-game series at Coors Field which begins Tuesday night. Arizona just went 4-1 on a five-game homestand and had a season-high four-game winning streak come to an end in Sunday's 12-4 loss versus the Toronto Blue Jays. The D'Backs (20-25), who went 0-6 on their previous residency, scored at least eight runs during their recent four-game winning streak. They totaled 59 runs and averaged 6.6 runs in the past nine games before the Jays exploded in the series finale. "Not a great day today," Arizona manager A.J. Hinch said. "But it's not going to spoil a really good showing at home, for what feels like has been a while." It's been a while since Justin Upton was a threat at the plate. Upton hit .213 with three homers and 10 RBI in April, but is starting to earn every penny of the second-richest contract in franchise history this month. Before yesterday's loss versus Toronto, Upton was batting .329 with four doubles, two triples, four homers and 12 RBI in 16-of-21 May contests. Upton probably wishes he could play every game at Chase Field, where the Diamondbacks have hit 74 home runs in 23 games. ROCKIES LIKE WHAT THEY SEE IN FRANCIS Jim Tracy's rotation in Colorado is slowly coming back together, but he can't be more relieved of the progress Jeff Francis is making in his return from left shoulder surgery. Francis missed all of last season because of the issue and made his first start since September of the 2008 campaign on May 16 with seven strong innings of one-run ball in a 2-1 victory over Washington. He did not record a decision that day, but finally reached the win column in Saturday's win at Kansas City. The left-hander held the Royals to five hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings of a 3-0 triumph, and is 1-0 with a 0.68 earned run average and nine strikeouts in two appearances in 2010. He moved within one win of tying Pedro Astacio for third place on the franchise wins list at 52 career victories. Aaron Cook is the team's all-time wins leader with 64, while Jason Jennings is second with 58 career wins. "He's been real good this both outings, but this outing I definitely think he was better than he was his last outing," said Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. "Last outing his arm-side fastball, which I watched real closely and always do, he was missing a lot high. Today he really was down in the zone on pretty much everything." Colorado's first-round pick in 2002, Francis won a career-high 17 games over 34 starts in 2007 to help lead the Rockies to the World Series. He made just 24 starts in 2008 before stiffness and pain in the shoulder ruined 2009. Jorge De La Rosa is the only starter on the disabled list and is battling a torn tendon band on his left middle finger. Tracy will be ecstatic when he has Ubaldo Jimenez, Cook, Francis, Jason Hammel and De La Rosa all together again at full strength. Closer Huston Street is still on the DL with right shoulder inflammation, while saves leader Franklin Morales is disabled with left shoulder weakness. The Rockies (22-22) are back at the .500 mark and have hit at least one home run in six straight games. They went 3-4 on a seven-game road trip and will begin a six-game homestand Tuesday versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. Colorado is four games off the lead in the NL West and 2 1/2 games in front of last-place Arizona in the division standings. SAN DIEGO'S ECKSTEIN DOUBLING HIS PLEASURE San Diego Padres infielder David Eckstein leads the team with 16 multi-hit games and recorded his sixth in the past seven by going 2-for-5 in Sunday's 8-1 win at Seattle. Eckstein has hit safely in 19 of his last 25 games, going 36-for-103 over that time with a .350 batting average. Since late April, Eckstein is near the top in the National League in hits with 36 and leads the Padres with a .310 batting average. Only Adrian Gonzalez has a batter on-base percentage among every day players at .401. Eckstein's is .370. The NL West-leading Padres (26-18) are first in the majors with 52 stolen bases, with Will Venable leading the club with 12 swipes. Chase Headley isn't too far behind with nine stolen bases. Since beginning the season 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA in five starts, Padres young starter Mat Latos has bounced back in a big way. Latos is 3-0 with a microscopic 0.93 earned run average in his last four starts and tossed six innings of one-run ball in Sunday's triumph at Seattle. The right-hander battled through a migraine headache in his 19th major league start. "He came in with a little migraine, but wanted to pitch," said Padres manager Bud Black. "I don't think he had his overall best stuff today. But he had a good changeup and a good slider and elevated some fastballs. I'm proud of him." Latos has allowed a total of three earned runs over his last four starts covering 29 innings. The Padres went 3-2 on a five-game road trip and will begin a tough nine-game homestand Tuesday versus the Cardinals, Nationals and Mets. They're currently one game ahead of Los Angeles in the NL West standings. DODGERS ANTICIPATE FURCAL'S RETURN Out of the lineup since late April because of a hamstring injury, Los Angeles Dodgers veteran shortstop Rafael Furcal is eyeing a possible return this week when the club begins a six-game road trip against the Cubs and Rockies. Furcal took some at-bats this weekend in extended spring training, and was hitting .309 with six RBI and 16 runs scored before the injury. "He's fine, we're going to wait until Tuesday to activate him," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said on the team's site. "He came back today had a real good day yesterday, did about everything ... he felt good today. [We're waiting] to let him just have the insurance of a couple days extra rest and the fact that we have to decide what we're doing." Torre will have to make room for the strong-armed infielder, and that could be either a pitcher or reserve player being demoted. Speaking of pitchers, Clayton Kershaw will shoot for his fourth straight winning start when he takes the ball against the Cubs on Tuesday. Kershaw was 1-2 with a 4.99 ERA in his first six starts, but is 3-0 with a 0.81 earned run average over his previous three outings. He has lasted at least seven innings in each of his previous three trips to the hill, striking out a total of 23 batters in that period. Los Angeles (25-19) will follow Kershaw with another streaking starting pitcher in Chad Billingsley. Billingsley has won three straight and four of five starts, and is expected to pitch Wednesday against Chicago. He owns a 1.37 ERA during his personal winning streak. The Dodgers, who are one game behind San Diego for the top spot in the National League West, lost a member of the family when it was learned that pitcher Jose Lima passed away due to a heart attack Sunday morning. Lima went 13-5 with a 4.07 ERA for LA in 2004 and helped the club to a division title. A recent member of the Dodger Alumni Association, Lima's death hit home with Dodgers owner Frank McCourt. "We are shocked and saddened to learn of the tragic loss of Jose Lima," McCourt said on LA's site. "Though he was taken from us way too soon, he truly lived his life to the fullest and his personality was simply unforgettable."
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How to bet pro footballThere is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB. These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon. Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality. Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on. Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain. Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top. The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap? To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense. Home vs. Away Teams Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player. Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week. Price ranges Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1. Playoff teams It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time. Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them. This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999. Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games. Scoring defense and scoring offense Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1. Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period. There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1. The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail. Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road. Scoring margin An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team. In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season. Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers. In sum Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap. The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits. To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs. Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence. The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night. MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds. A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family. A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital. Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns. To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards. |
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