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Gaming: SEC - Number one ATS since 2007NCAA Football Betting Lines08/26/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southeastern Conference has not only produced the national champion the last four years, but the league has also finished above .500 against the spread in non-league games every season as well. In addition, the SEC is a healthy 80-61 ATS in out-of-conference games over the last three years. Wagering on the favorite inside league play has not been as effective, with a 63-80-4 record over that same time span. The prime culprits have been Vanderbilt (1-3), Auburn (3-8), LSU (4-12-2), Kentucky (2-5) and Georgia (5-12-1). Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories. EAST 6) VANDERBILT - The Commodores went 5-6 ATS last season with a 9-2 mark to the under. They are 21-5 ATS as road underdogs over the last six years. Offense - The Commodores struggled last year, averaging 16.3 points per game and only 8.9 ppg in league play. The chances for improvement are slim and none, with the loss of four offensive line starters and nagging injuries to their top four running backs. Defense - Last year's defense was on the field for more minutes than all but one of the 120 Football Bowl Subdivision squads. That eventually took its toll as the unit allowed 34.5 points per game over the final four contests after giving up just 18 ppg in the first eight. Expect that trend to continue in 2010. Prediction - It will be another long and painful season in Nashville. (1-11, 0-8) 5) KENTUCKY - The Wildcats finished 6-6 ATS last year. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 conference home games, but 13-6 ATS in their last 19 on the road. Offense - Kentucky had its highest rushing total (191 ypg) since 1993, but the club still finished 10th in league play in total offense. It will be difficult to sustain the solid ground attack this season with the departure of four offensive line starters. Defense - The Wildcats improved one slot in total defense inside the SEC last year, moving up from 12th to next-to-last. The prospects of going even further up the ladder are small with the return of just four of their top 10 tacklers. Prediction - Kentucky always seems to overachieve, so a fourth consecutive 6-6 ATS campaign is certainly not out of the question. (6-6, 2-6) 4) TENNESSEE - The Volunteers went 7-6 ATS last season. They are 5-2 ATS as road underdogs over the last two years. Offense - Tennessee allowed just six sacks in eight conference games last year. Look for that number to possibly triple with the loss of all five starters. The Vols' scoring average will drop over a touchdown from last year's 29 ppg mark. Defense - The defense loses its top four tacklers, including superstar safety Eric Berry. Furthermore, the line has been banged up in fall camp so another 10th-place league finish against the run is a distinct possibility. Prediction - Lane Kiffin did a superb job last season but the Derek Dooley era will start very slowly - both SU and ATS. (6-6, 3-5) 3) GEORGIA - The Bulldogs went 5-7 ATS last season, but finished up 3-1 in their last four games. They are 2-8 ATS as home favorites over the last two years. Offense - Georgia entered '09 without Matthew Stafford as well as its leading rusher and receiver, but the offense more than held its own tying Arkansas for the top spot in scoring inside the SEC. If redshirt freshman Andrew Murray can improve on Joe Cox's numbers, the Bulldogs will be a force on offense. Defense - After allowing 25.9 ppg (the school's highest total since 1993), head coach Mark Richt made a drastic change moving to a 3-4 package. However, the problem last year was a porous secondary that gave up 25 passing touchdowns. Only two other FBS teams allowed more. With just five returning starters, the defense still has a ways to go. Prediction - Georgia has lost seven games ATS each of the last two seasons. That will not be the case in 2010. (9-3, 5-3) 2) SOUTH CAROLINA - The Gamecocks went 7-5 ATS last year. They are 5-13 ATS in the final six games of the season over the last three years. Offense - Every season it is the same old story with South Carolina: an ineffective offensive line (107 sacks allowed over the last three years) and a poor ground attack (110 ypg average since '07). This year could be the exception to the latter if true freshman running back Marcus Lattimore lives up to expectations. However, the line has continued to underperform in fall camp. Defense - For as poor as the offense has been of late, the "D" has been the complete opposite, finishing 15th nationally last season in total defense. Ten of the top 13 tacklers return, so look for another solid showing. Prediction - South Carolina teases its fans every year but 2010 could be different, especially in a weaker SEC East. (8-4, 5-3) 1) FLORIDA - The Gators went 6-6-1 ATS last year. They are an amazing 20-4 ATS in non-conference play over the last six years. Offense - Losing Tim Tebow is a big blow but not as much as the departure of four of the top five receiving leaders. On the other hand, John Brantley should more than hold his own as the new signal-caller, particularly with a dominating offensive line and a solid stable of running backs. Defense - Since Urban Meyer has come to Gainesville, the defense has ranked sixth nationally against the run. Even with the loss of four of the club's top five tacklers, look for the Gators to maintain their standing as one of the top defensive teams in the county. Prediction - Florida is 10-5 to the under in its last 15 games. With a slightly weakened defense and an offense geared more towards passing, the overs should pick up in 2010. (10-2, 6-2) WEST 6) OLE MISS - The Rebels went 6-5 ATS last year. They are 1-5 ATS as conference road favorites over the last five years. Offense - The main question is how long will it take before Jeremiah Masoli is under center? Even if it is week one, don't expect him to breeze through the season with the lack of playmakers on the roster. In addition, the interior of the line is extremely inexperienced. Defense - Last year's defense finished tied for fourth nationally in red zone efficiency and fifth in third-down percentage. Look for a drop-off in those two categories with the loss of five starters. Moreover, the unit loses its two top corners that helped the Rebels hold opposing league quarterbacks to a 47% completion percentage. Prediction - This is a much weaker team than the one that has posted a 14-8 ATS mark over the last two years. (6-6, 2-6) 5) AUBURN - The Tigers went 6-6 ATS in '09. They are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in their final six regular season FBS games over the last two years. Offense - Auburn's scoring improved from 110th nationally to 17th in just one season behind offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The biggest turnaround came inside the red zone, as the offense converted on 95% of its opportunities as opposed to 57% the year before. This season could be more of the same if Cam Newton flourishes as the new signal-caller. Defense - The Tigers allowed 133 second-half points from week seven through the bowl game. However, improvement is expected in the second year of the new system, especially with a much healthier secondary. Prediction - Auburn went 8-3-1 to the over last season. Stick with that scenario once again. (8-4, 4-4) 4) MISSISSIPPI STATE - The Bulldogs finished 6-5 ATS last season. They are 0-7 ATS as home favorites over the last five years. Offense - The loss of Anthony Dixon could stifle a running game that led the SEC with 228 ypg, On the other hand, the two quarterbacks - Chris Relf and Tyler Russell - should produce far better numbers than Tyson Lee did last season (1,444 passing yards with 14 interceptions). This offense has a chance to surprise if the new running backs can keep defenses honest. Defense - This unit held its own last year allowing only two points more per game than the previous season despite the loss of five of its top six tacklers. The run defense was stout (146 ypg on 4.0 ypc), especially considering the Bulldogs played four of the top 13 rushing teams in the country. Look for much improved numbers across the board with the return of 16 of the top 19 tacklers. Prediction - Mississippi State will finish with a winning ATS record in league play for the second straight season. (7-5, 4-4) 3) ARKANSAS - The Razorbacks went 7-5 ATS last year. The last time they finished below .500 in the eight regular season conference games was all the way back in 1999. Offense - In games against Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, South Carolina and East Carolina, Ryan Mallett completed just 46% of his tosses with only five touchdowns, and the offense averaged 21 ppg. In the other seven games (versus weaker defenses), he hit on 65% with 25 touchdowns, and the club scored 49 ppg. This is a talented but slightly overrated offense. Defense - Arkansas recovered 17 fumbles last year as opposed to only five the previous season. That was one reason why the Hogs were +15 in turnover differential. They were also last in the SEC in total defense. Prediction - The Razorbacks will not match last year's 7-5 ATS record. (8-4, 5-3) 2) ALABAMA - The Crimson Tide went 9-4 ATS last season for a two-year 18-9 total. They are 6-1 ATS as road favorites over the last two campaigns. Offense - Imagine how good last year's offense would have been if it did not finish 10th best in the league in red zone touchdown percentage. With eight starters back, including Heisman Trophy winning running back Mark Ingram, look for Alabama to reach the end zone on a more consistent basis in 2010. Defense - Last year's unit ranked second nationally in scoring and total defense but that was with eight returning starters. This season, only two come back and the defense loses nine of its top 13 tacklers. This scenario is reminiscent of Florida's 2007 defense that returned just two starters and witnessed its scoring average almost double from the previous season. Prediction - Alabama's ATS record will not come anywhere close to last season's 9-4 mark. (10-2, 6-2) 1) LSU - The Tigers were 5-7-1 ATS last season. They are 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 conference home games. Offense - LSU's strength was taken away last year as injuries to three different running backs curtailed the ground game. This year's offense will be a thousand times more productive with better health, especially if quarterback Jordan Jefferson improves his ability to read defenses. Defense - A lot of new faces will patrol the defense after six of last year's top nine tacklers have departed. That unit was on the field for over 900 plays causing the Tigers to rank sixth in the league in total defense despite finishing third in yards allowed per play. The 2010 version has the potential to be number one in the conference by year's end. Prediction - Take the 10-1 on the Tigers to win the SEC. They will also have a winning ATS record for the first time since '05. (11-1, 7-1)
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NFL Football BettingBILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover. BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week. COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy. TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win. RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win. PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start. JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch. SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do. VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams. DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home. SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one. BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1. BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses. RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw. PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1. Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?" A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook. In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small. "Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets." But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?" Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year. This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here. Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions. In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries. No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning. And that's all any bettor can ask for. To visit this sports book go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs. |
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