A-Ram leads Cubs over D'Backs
Baseball Betting Lines
07/07/2010 -
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aramis Ramirez belted a pair of two-run homers,
and the Chicago Cubs secured back-to-back road wins for the first time since
late May with a 6-4 decision over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the middle
installment of a three-game series.
Ramirez, who came into Tuesday hitting .178, went deep off starter Barry
Enright in the sixth inning and Aaron Heilman in the eighth as the Cubs posted
consecutive victories for the first time since June 16-17 vs. Oakland. They
hadn't won two in a row on the road since May 22-23 against Texas, which was
their last road series triumph.
Kosuke Fukudome hit a solo homer for the Cubs, who moved to 9-2 against
National League West competition this season. Chicago is 28-45 against all
other foes. Tuesday's result also gave the Cubs their first series win at
Chase Field since August 22-24, 2003 when the club won two of three games.
Carlos Silva (9-2) gave up four hits and a pair of runs over six innings
to snap a four-start winless skid. He's 5-0 on the road this season. Carlos
Marmol pitched the final 1 2/3 innings for his 16th save.
Kelly Johnson homered for the Diamondbacks, who lost their fourth in a row.
Enright (1-1) was charged with seven hits and three runs over 5 2/3 innings in
his second major league appearance.
Stephen Drew's sacrifice fly gave the Diamondbacks an early lead in the second
inning, but they failed to add to that despite having runners at the corners
and nobody out in the fourth as Mark Reynolds struck out and Adam LaRoche
grounded into a double play.
Fukudome homered to right leading off the sixth. Derrek Lee doubled later in
the inning and scored on a Ramirez longball to left-center.
Johnson's homer to center in the bottom of the inning had the Diamondbacks
within 3-2, but Ryan Theriot singled in Geovany Soto in the seventh. Ramirez
then made it 6-2 in the eighth. Tyler Colvin walked to start the inning and
Ramirez then crushed a homer to left.
Johnson and Justin Upton singled in runs in the bottom of the eighth, but with
two runners on base, Miguel Montero and Reynolds both struck out to keep
Chicago ahead.
LaRoche struck out to start the ninth, but made it to first on a wild pitch.
Marmol retired the next three batters.
Game Notes
It was Ramirez's first multi-homer game since August 23, 2008 against
Washington...The Cubs captured their first series victory since taking two of
three games from Oakland June 15-17 at Wrigley Field...Ramirez has 22 multi-
homer games in his career.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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